The Federal Reserve Is Setting Up Trump For A Recession, A Housing Crisis And A Stock Market Crash?


TheEconomicCollapse

How The Federal Reserve Is Setting Up Trump For A Recession, A Housing Crisis And A Stock Market Crash

By Michael Snyder

Most Americans do not understand this, but the truth is that the Federal Reserve has far more power over the U.S. economy than anyone else does, and that includes Donald Trump.  Politicians tend to get the credit or the blame for how the economy is performing, but in reality it is an unelected, unaccountable panel of central bankers that is running the show, and until something is done about the Fed our long-term economic problems will never be fixed.  For an extended analysis of this point, please see this article.  In this piece, I am going to explain why the Federal Reserve is currently setting the stage for a recession, a new housing crisis and a stock market crash, and if those things happen unfortunately it will be Donald Trump that will primarily get the blame.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is expected to hike interest rates, and there is even the possibility that they will call for an acceleration of future rate hikes

Economists generally believe the central bank’s median estimate will continue to call for three quarter-point rate increases both this year and in 2018. But there’s some risk that gets pushed to four as inflation nears the Fed’s annual 2% target and business confidence keeps juicing markets in anticipation of President Trump’s plan to cut taxes and regulations.

During the Obama years, the Federal Reserve pushed interest rates all the way to the floor, and this artificially boosted the economy.  In a recent article, Gail Tverberg explained how this works…

With falling interest rates, monthly payments can be lower, even if prices of homes and cars rise. Thus, more people can afford homes and cars, and factories are less expensive to build. The whole economy is boosted by increased “demand” (really increased affordability) for high-priced goods, thanks to the lower monthly payments.

Asset prices, such as home prices and farm prices, can rise because the reduced interest rate for debt makes them more affordable to more buyers. Assets that people already own tend to inflate, making them feel richer. In fact, owners of assets such as homes can borrow part of the increased equity, giving them more spendable income for other things. This is part of what happened leading up to the financial crash of 2008.

But the opposite is also true.

When interest rates rise, borrowing money becomes more expensive and economic activity slows down.

For the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates right now is absolutely insane.  According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s most recent projection, GDP growth for the first quarter of 2017 is supposed to be an anemic 1.2 percent.  Personally, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if we actually ended up with a negative number for the first quarter.

As Donald Trump has explained in detail, the U.S. economy is a complete mess right now, and we are teetering on the brink of a new recession.

So why in the world would the Fed raise rates unless they wanted to hurt Donald Trump?

Raising rates also threatens to bring on a new housing crisis.  Interest rates were raised prior to the subprime mortgage meltdown in 2007 and 2008, and now we could see history repeat itself.  When rates go higher, it becomes significantly more difficult for families to afford mortgage payments

The rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage reached its all-time low in November 2012, at just 3.31%. As of this week, it was 4.21%, and by the end of 2018, it could go as high as 5.5%, forecasts Matthew Pointon, a property economist for Capital Economics.

He points out that for a homeowner with a $250,000 mortgage fixed at 3.8%, annual payments are $14,000. If that homeowner moved to a similarly-priced home but had a 5.5% rate, their annual payments would rise by $3,000 a year, to $17,000.

Of course stock investors do not like rising rates at all either.  Stocks tend to rise in low rate environments such as we have had for the past several years, and they tend to fall in high rate environments.

And according to CNBC, a “coming stock market correction” could be just around the corner…

Investors are in for a rude awakening about a coming stock market correction — most just don’t know it yet. No one knows when the crash will come or what will cause it — and no one can. But what’s worse for most investors is they have no clue how much they stand to lose when it inevitably happens.

“If you look at the market historically, we have had, on average, a crash about every eight to 10 years, and essentially the average loss is about 42 percent,” said Kendrick Wakeman, CEO of financial technology and investment analytics firm FinMason.

If stocks start to fall, how low could they ultimately go?

One technical analyst that has a stunning record of predicting short-term stock market declines in recent years is saying that the Dow could potentially drop “by more than 6,000 points to 14,800″

But if the technical stars collide, as one chartist predicts, the blue-chip gauge could soon plunge by more than 6,000 points to 14,800. That’s nearly 30% lower, based on Friday’s close.

Sandy Jadeja, chief market strategist at Master Trading Strategies, claims several predicted stock market crashes to his name — all of them called days, or even weeks, in advance. (He told CNBC viewers, for example, that the August 2015 “Flash Crash” was coming 18 days before it hit.) He’s also made prescient calls on gold and crude oil.

And he’s extremely concerned about what this year could bring for investors. “The timeline is rapidly approaching” for the next potential Dow meltdown, said Jadeja, who shares his techniques via workshops and seminars.

Most big stock market crashes tend to happen in the fall, and that is what I portray in my novel, but the truth is that they can literally happen at any time.  If you have not seen my recent rant about how ridiculously overvalued stocks are at this moment in history, you can find it right here.  Whether you want to call it a “crash”, a “correction”, or something else, the truth is that a major downturn is coming for stocks and the only question is when it will strike.

And when things start to get bad, most of the blame will be dumped on Trump, but it won’t primarily be his fault.

It was the Federal Reserve that created this massive financial bubble, and they will also be responsible for popping it.  Hopefully we can get the American people to understand how these things really work so that accountability for what is coming can be placed where it belongs.

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George Soros’ World is Falling Apart, Blames Everyone but Himself


For his own part, Soros, ironically at Davos, predicted that Trump had no chance of being elected president. And he was wrong. Now it appears he can’t deal with the outcome. Perhaps because he feels his life’s work is slipping away.

Covert Geopolitics

Call it by any other fancy names, but Corporate Tyranny continue to be exposed for what it truly is, worldwide. Behind it all are big bankers and financial assassins, willing to send taxpayer-funded armed mercenaries into countries unwilling to participate in their self-emolation.

One of the most notable financial assassins is the dying George Soros.

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Russia Issues Full-Scale War Alert As West Faces Financial Armageddon


whatdoesitmean

By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers

A new Ministry of Defense (MoD) report circulating in the Kremlin today states that the first squadrons of Sukhoi Su-24, Sukhoi Su-34 and Sukhoi Su-25 ground support fighter aircraft ordered to Syria by President Putin to take part in the freeing of Aleppo from Obama regime backed Islamic terrorists have begun to arrive in the Levant War Zone at the same time that the Ministery of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) is warning that “full-scale war may be imminent” and as the West “is nearing financial Armageddon”. [Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]

According to this report, President Putin’s ordering these fighter aircraft to support the freeing of Aleppo from the grip of “Obama’s terrorists” is in “direct retaliation” to these “modern day barbarians” ceaseless attacks upon the innocent civilians of this city—and that the US shockingly this week stated they were preparing for nuclear war with Russia in order to let this “senseless slaughter of innocents” continue.

To how grave the situation in Aleppo has become, this report continues, Syrian supreme commander Major-General Zaid Saleh outlined this week by stating: “The terrorist groups are using civilians as human shields to prevent the Army from targeting them. They heavily depend on US and Turkey to supply them with weapons. But we won’t allow this to happen”.

With Syrian troops, under the protective cover of Russian aircraft, now penetrating more deeply into Aleppo against “Obama’s terrorists, this report notes, this proxy war where the Gulf States, the US and until recently, Turkey have poured billions-of-dollars and hundreds of tons of equipment into while using tens-of-thousands of foreign fighters to kill hundreds-of-thousands is nearing its end.

 

As all hope is now lost for the Obama regime to protect its Islamic terrorists, this report says, the Americans and its allies have gone into “hyperbolic mode” accusing Russia of “savagery” and are not only threatening to “send Russian’s home in body bags”, they are, also, now saying that they are going to give these terrorists portable ground to air missiles—which if happens, most assuredly, will soon after be used to shoot down planes over Europe and the United States.

Particularly angering the Obama regime about Russia’s impending total victory in Syria over these Islamic terrorists, this report explains, is President Putin’s playing by what the American’s call the “Grozny Rules”—which is a reference to Russia’s total war against Chechen Islamic terrorists where the entire city of Grozny was destroyed in order to eliminate these terrorists forever.

Angering the Obama regime even worse, this report continues, is their “losing the information war” over this conflict to Russia—but that Federation experts more rightly state is people simply knowing what the truth is, and who have bluntly stated about Western media hypocrisy:

The Western media have become so embedded in the ideological matrix of the ruling Western class that they no longer know what the meaning or purpose of genuine journalism is. Just this week, American forces and their various allies killed civilians in Syria, Afghanistan and Yemen. Bloodied children’s bodies were pulled like lifeless rag dolls from rubble in Yemen after US-supported Saudi air strikes continued their week-after-week slaughter of civilians there. No coverage of these crimes in Western media. No emotive denunciations from UN officials. No calls for sanctions, prosecutions or editorial condemnations of Washington and its allies as “outlaw states”.

 

With Russia, however, knowing what an “outlaw state” looks like, this report says, the Ministry of Affairs this morning bluntly told the Obama regime about their continued support of Islamic terrorists by warning that unless stopped it will result in a full-scale war that will lead to “tectonic shifts” in the whole region—if not the entire world.

With Brexit clearly showing these Western elites the limitations of their continuous fear-based campaigns against all who oppose them, MoD experts in this report point out, they still fail to see that the credibility of their “third-way politics” as championed by Bill Clinton, Tony Blair and other communist-like leftists ruling Europe and America, has been completely savaged by the very people they rule over—but who are now prepared to start World War II in their last gasp bid to continue their monstrous rule.

But to the latest tragedy to befall these Western peoples at the hands of their elite rulers, this report warns, is the financial Armageddon they are soon to face as one of their largest banks, Deutsche Bank, is nearing complete collapse due to its over $42 trillion in derivatives (bets) and whose failure will take down nearly every bank in the United States and Europe with it.

 

With German Chancellor Merkel already stating that her government will not bail out Deutsche Bank (as it would be political suicide to do so), this report continues, these German bankers are now rushing to the United States in hopes that the Obama regime will.

Grimly too, this report points out, is that aside from Deutsche Bank nearing collapse, according to the global banking body The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), both Canada and China are nearing a total banking collapse too.

This report concludes by noting that among the least prepared people in the world for total war and economic collapse are the Americans—who like in 2007 when they failed to heed the warnings that their entire economy was about to collapse (and we, likewise, reported on in our 28 June 2007 report US Banking Collapse ‘Imminent’ Warns French Banking Giant) and who are, once again, are listening to their propaganda media, instead of hearing the truth, while their life savings, pensions and stock holdings are about to disappear into the hands of their elite rulers—just like the last time.

 

Other reports in this series include:

“Level B” Russian Ministries Ordered To Bunkers After US Threat To Cut Off Diplomacy

Putin Convenes “Holy Council Of War” As Obama Regime Threats Intensify

Russia Collapses Entire US Intelligence System Using Microsoft, Facebook And Google

Russia Moves ICBM’s To EU Border After Recording Confirms Pentagon Coordinated ISIS Attack

World On Brink After Obama Activates Missile Shield, Prepares Weapons For Space

Top Russian Ministries Flee To Bunkers As “Hillary Clinton War” Warned May Be Unstoppable


October 2, 2016 © EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition it is linked back to its original source at WhatDoesItMean.Com. Freebase content licensed under CC-BY and GFDL.

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Will #Deutsche’s Problem Ever End?


BANG! More Bad News For Deutsche and Friends as the Take Down Intensifies
Finance

There should be no doubt in anyone’s mind that the Official Take Down of the Global Monetary System has kicked into OVERDRIVE!!

Even the government and regulators are doing their part to destroy the system!!

Deutsche Bank, Paschi, Numora Staff Charged Over False Accounts
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-01/deutsche-bank-paschi-nomura-staff-charged-over-false-accounts-itr5z2ku

“Six current and former managers of Deutsche Bank AG — including Michele Faissola, Michele Foresti and Ivor Dunbar — along with two former executives at Nomura Holdings Inc. and five at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA were charged in Milan for colluding to falsify the accounts of Italy’s third-biggest bank and manipulate the market.”


The charges deal another blow to Deutsche Bank, which is seeking to reassure investors and clients that it will be able to withstand pending U.S. penalties over the bank’s sale of mortgage-backed securities and its dealings with some Russian clients. Monte Paschi, the world’s oldest bank, restated its accounts and has been forced to tap investors twice to replenish capital amid a surge in bad loans and losses on derivatives. It’s now attempting to convince investors to buy billions of soured debt before a fresh stock sale. – Bloomberg


END

This couldn’t happen at a WORSE time for the world’s largest derivative holder.

And there will be more “bad news” soon.

PS – At this end of this Road is a Silver Moonshot that will be for the record books!!

May the Road you choose be the Right Road.

Bix Weir
http://www.RoadtoRoota.com

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EU Banking Mayhem: One Bank at a Time – Then All at Once


 

by Wolf Richter

Investors are not amused.

The European banking crisis simply doesn’t let up. Currently, the big two German banks are grabbing the headlines away from the Italian banks, due to their size and the damage they could do to the global financial system. Other banks are in bigger trouble still, and some have already collapsed, with bailouts and bail-ins getting lined up.

Deutsche Bank had to endure a horrendous Monday after it was leaked on Friday that Merkel had refused to entertain bailing out the bank before the general elections a year from now. Merkel’s popularity has gotten broadsided recently, and bailing out bank bondholders with taxpayer money is just not popular at the moment.

Then Commerzbank, in which the government already owns a stake of 16% as a result of the bailout during the Financial Crisis, graced the headlines with leaks that it would lay off 9,000 employees, nearly one-fifth of its workforce. This will cost about €1 billion, according to the sources. To pay for it, the bank will scrap its dividend for 2016 to reduce the bleeding and preserve capital, in what is turning out to be the hellish environment of negative interest rates.

We’ve been writing about the European banking crisis for a long time, it seems, as it drags on, and meanders from one country to another, and sometimes we write about it in an amused fashion because we’ve got to keep our sense of humor in all this gloom.

But investors who believed in all the hype and in Draghi’s promises and in Merkel’s strength and in the willingness of all of them to do whatever it takes to protect bank bondholders and stockholders, and who believed in the miracle of Spain’s recovery, and in Italy’s new government and what not – well, they’re not amused.

For them, it has been bloody. The global financial crisis got swept under the rug. Then the euro debt crisis took down some banks at the periphery, and taxpayers stepped in to bail out the bondholders, mostly, and a lot more things got swept under the rug. But the problems weren’t solved. And as the decomposing assets under the rug kept exuding their pungent odor, investors held their nose and played along for a while.

But now it’s just getting worse. And investors are wondering what exactly is under these rugs – or maybe they’d rather not know for it’s too ugly to behold. And every time someone does look, for example at the Italian banks, they find even bigger problems that have started to metastasize.

This banking crisis has the potential to transmogrify into a financial crisis. All it takes is for one of the big ones to suddenly topple. The flow of credit would freeze up instantly. In an economic system that depends on credit, and whose lifeblood is credit, such an event is a financial crisis.

The problem isn’t restricted to a couple of Italian or German banks. It’s deep and wide.

Here are the 29 banks in the ESTX Banks Index of Eurozone banks (so Swiss and UK banks, for example are not included). It shows the percentage drop from their 52-week high. But for some of these banks, particularly for Italian and Portuguese banks, that 52-week high was just about last year’s 52-week low, so relentless has their decline been over the years. Some of them had already been reduced to penny stocks years ago, and for them, in euro terms, the biggest losses occurred back then. So these mayhem banks, color coded by country:

eurozone-bank-estx_from-52-week-high

If a bank stock plunges from €0.04 to €0.01 over the 52-week period, such as Banco Comercial Português in Portugal, it has been toast for longer than 52 weeks, and the percentage plunge is essentially meaningless because shares were worthless to begin with.

The shares of five of these banks trade under €1. Another 8 banks trade under €3. These 29 banks form a big part of the European financial system. It includes some of the world’s largest banks, such as Deutsche Bank, Societe Generale, and BNP Paribas. It includes a slew of other “systemically important financial institutions,” such as Unicredit, ING, and Santander.

They’re troubled at the same time. The can has been kicked down the road for years. Now negative interest rates appear to have inadvertently crushed the can.

So when will Merkel buckle? Read…  Deutsche Bank in Free Fall. Shares, CoCo Bonds Plunge. Merkel Gives Cold Shoulder on Bailout. Bank Denies Everything

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World Trade Collapsing On Schedule


…the planned financial/economic collapse is perfectly on schedule

The UN warns of next financial crisis imminent


ArmstrongEconomics

world-trade-2-433x600

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has warned that there is a “dramatic slowing of trade growth” unfolding. The WTO has revised downward its projections, saying trade is now on track this year to grow at the slowest pace since 2009.

The hunt for taxes is destroying the world economy and on January 1, 2017, all governments will begin sharing info on foreigners. The assumption is that anyone doing anything outside the USA is hiding money from taxes. With this attitude, world trade will continue to collapse into 2020.

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Warren Buffett Is Out Of The Casino


TDV

Jeff Berwick

Warren Buffett Is the Latest Billionaire To Jump Ship From The Markets

Right now the market is perceived to be so dangerous that it’s even chased the most fearless value investors to the sidelines.

Just this evening, in the Presidential debate, Trump warned that the stock market was a bubble “about to pop”.

Now, the bearish billionaire circle has grown even wider with the addition of Warren Buffett.

The “Oracle of Omaha” as he’s known, currently has more money outside the markets than ever before in his five decades running Berkshire-Hathaway.

buffetscashholdings

This is a striking fact considering that Buffett is very well known for his long-term investment strategy – an approach that requires one to constantly have most of their capital tied up in order to generate consistent returns.

That’s right, as the S&P 500 is near record highs, Warren Buffet is more out of the market than he has ever been and waiting for a collapse.

That the 86 year old has so much dry powder, shows his anticipation of a massive market crisis and quite possibly the biggest buying opportunity of his life. Just like us, Buffet is ready to survive and prosper through this calamity.

And with asset prices at all time highs and CNBC and Fox business puppets still perpetuating the great recovery myth, you might expect all these smart money billionaires to be piling into stocks to ride the upside. Instead they obviously know the “goldilocks” recovery holds true to its name’s fairytale origin.

They say “follow the smart money”… and Buffett is known as one of the smartest!

And even more multi-billion dollar fund managers are coming out and warning.

Tad Rivelle, the chief investment officer of TCW’s $195 billion investment fund, is yet another outspoken multi-billion dollar fund manager who’s expressed concern about the economy and monetary policy gone awry.

Rivelle mentioned in a Bloomberg interview last week that he thinks it’s “Time to leave the dance floor” because, to paraphrase, corporate debt is piling up faster than income is increasing.

In a note to investors Rivelle argued, “Face it: the central banking Emperors have no clothes.” he continued:

“…The Fed could continue to use its printing press to falsify capital market signals, but to what end? When a central bank buys an asset with an electronically printed dollar, a “something for nothing” trade has taken place. Unless everything we understand about economics is plain wrong, the Fed cannot go on blithely adding printing press dollars to the system and expect no ill effects.”

The letter continues:

“Our counsel remains as it has been: avoid those assets that will be broken in the coming de-leveraging while keeping a ‘steady as she goes’ attitude towards the future purchase of those assets that will merely bend when the flood comes.”  

He actually called the coming de-leveraging, “the flood”. Even the language of these top money people is biblical in nature.

When we first began ringing the alarm bells about an impending financial crisis last summer, we were nearly the only ones doing it.  Then, month after month, some of the biggest names in money and finance have not only climbed aboard our bandwagon, but have practically stampeded past us.

Now, we can barely keep up with the amount of people warning of impending doom.

Last summer we made a call for subscribers that earned 4,500% in just three days by calling the market crash in late August correctly.

And, our Senior Market Analyst, Ed Bugos, has just reissued a very similar play in an alert to Premium subscribers on September 16th.

There is no guarantee we’ll make another 4,500% gain in a short amount of time, of course.  But it is virtually the exact same investment play we made last summer which made a fortune.

And, that was before we had the likes of Soros, Trump, Rothschild, Jim Rogers and numerous other billionaires, also feeling the same way as us.

We are now less than a week away from the end of the Jubilee Year and if our call is right, we could again make mind boggling returns in just the next few weeks or months.

And, the best part about this type of an out-of-the-money shot is that you can put a small amount of money into it and possibly make large returns… and if it is wrong, you lose just a small amount of money.

Subscribe to TDV Premium and get immediate access to Ed Bugos’ pick in his alert of September 16th.

If the ship’s going down, and soon, it’ll be much more enjoyable making a massive investment return off of it than going down with everyone else.

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